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[DO NOT MERGE] #551 rank-draw placebo at production settings: tie-break seed 1 (512 epochs) - #625

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MaxGhenis wants to merge 117 commits into

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d551/branch-placebo-prod

Closed

[DO NOT MERGE] #551 rank-draw placebo at production settings: tie-break seed 1 (512 epochs)#625
MaxGhenis wants to merge 117 commits into
mainfrom
d551/branch-placebo-prod

Commits on Oct 5, 2026
- Stop targeting OBR total NICs on ni_employee
  
  MaxGhenis
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  ff0b130
- Test OBR target variables and shared-column agreement
  
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  64d07fc
Commits on Oct 8, 2026
- Draw SPI incomes at each donor's FRS rank within their cell
  
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  committed
  3db0e60
- Split SPI earners with both pay and a trade by main source
  
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  df3a633
- Stub the rank draw in the SPI-copy gainful self-employment test
  
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  6c26644
Commits on Oct 9, 2026
- Test the rank draw's design invariants and qualify its claims
  
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  c134a6b
- Describe rank cells as the forests' conditioning at SPI resolution
  
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  5079ea6
Commits on Oct 10, 2026
- Map the 2023-24 SPI and CGT outturns to PolicyEngine year 2023
  
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  ca87af4
- Calibrate SPI income bands to their projected values
  
  MaxGhenis
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  a608ddb
- Read approved training from the FRS TRAINEE flag
  
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  ff5c998
Commits on Oct 11, 2026
- Flag approved training for FRS dependants only
  
  MaxGhenis
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  c952694
- State the TRAINEE pattern as observed, and fix the adult fixture's age
  
  MaxGhenis
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  98b2583
- Serve the SPI merge test the committed table, and fix the sampling date
  
  MaxGhenis
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  47fa84e
Commits on Oct 12, 2026
- Start capital gains on HMRC's 2024-25 size-of-gain table
  
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  d071ad0
- Impute capital gains after the other imputations
  
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  bb5bda3
- Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into fix/obr-ni-total-target
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  committed
  dd3e2ab
- Drop obr/ni from the fallback test set; key conflicts on countries
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  22ef313
- Address Sol review r1 nits on the OBR NIC comment and conflict check
  
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  4d30fbe
- Compare the reference pairs in every year their column lists
  
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  f5de403
Commits on Oct 15, 2026
- Merge origin/main (1.59.0: #576 batch) into spi-rank-preserving-draw
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  5621c0d
- Add locked pytest-xdist development dependency
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  6c81e89
- Fix local UC target alignment by area code
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  248688c
- Build OBR targets only from hash-verified EFO workbooks
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  c1953c6
- Save the calibrated weights from the final optimiser step
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  677f803
- Fail the calibration build on targets it drops or cannot fit
  
  MaxGhenis
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  39e652a
- Compare each pull request's calibration fit with its base build's
  
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  018e0b5
- Bind EFO vintages to their workbook titles; refuse rows with their own unit
  
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  committed
  98ad844
- Measure each build's HBAI distribution and single ages against its base
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  594c044
- List the three UC payment bands with no signal in pull request builds
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  eb247c6
- Read Scottish council tax targets from a hash-verified committed workbook
  
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  committed
  0cf62aa
- Compare each build's national aggregates with its base's, model fixed
  
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  b4ec4b5
- Record each browser download's time, and rehearse ingest with --dry-run
  
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  committed
  2fb5cfa
- Measure HBAI incomes as DWP does; fail on incomplete reports
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  b6c83c4
- Merge branch 'w3-distribution-checks' into w3-aggregate-data-comparison
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  9d37844
- Pin the aggregate-impact tool to policyengine-uk#2425's model-fingerprint commit
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  1d5a249
- Compare fit summaries, not raw calibration logs (Sol review of #599)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  22e823f
- Merge branch 'w3-fit-comparison' into w3-distribution-checks
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  4bf9cd8
- An empty HBAI group has no rate, not a NaN
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  48f88ad
- Format calibrate.py and say only the fit summary leaves the base build
  
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  committed
  564f370
- Merge branch 'w3-fit-comparison' into w3-distribution-checks
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  756cfe6
- Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/w3-distribution-checks' into w3-aggregate-data-comparison
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  80a5715
- Stop uploading raw calibration logs as public Actions artifacts
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  ddef8bb
- Describe the fit summary in the changelog fragment
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  b957157
- Say the flag evidence predates the records filter
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  342ea79
- Merge branch 'w3-fit-comparison' into w3-distribution-checks
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  da4acc7
- Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/w3-distribution-checks' into w3-aggregate-data-comparison
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  4219c79
- Guard every route out of a job that can reach the data (Sol review of #603)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  e42d23d
- Harden OBR ingest for Budget day (Sol re-review of #592)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  f1faff2
- Match ONS age targets to the FRS top code of 80
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  61f8f7e
- Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into spi-rank-preserving-draw
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  a017674
- Close three bypasses in the data-job guard (Sol re-review of #603)
  
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  committed
  449a519
- Publish only which targets are within 10% (Sol re-review of #599)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  9f50a95
- Merge branch 'w3-fit-comparison' into w3-distribution-checks
  MaxGhenis
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  2f0ed39
- Measure the distribution after the tests and report a crashed comparison (delta review of #600)
  
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  claude
  committed
  512e85e
- Merge branch 'w3-distribution-checks' into w3-aggregate-data-comparison
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  bed48ad
- Say which log columns describe the saved weights
  
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  committed
  2c95697
- Test the final-state invariant as a property over epochs and loops
  
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  e13f22b
- Stop data jobs saving the uv cache, and widen the data-job checks (Sol re-review 2 of #603)
  
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  committed
  8374b30
- Publish error bands and flag a worse band (Sol re-review 2 of #599)
  
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  30fbb83
- Merge #599's band rework; keep the test job about the tests (delta review 2 of #600)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  88e6624
- Merge #600; report a crashed aggregate comparison and keep the base aggregates independent (review of #602)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  ca9c0ab
- Pin the aggregate-impact tool to policyengine-uk#2425's c0d0c49d
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  13e8eb2
- Report dry-run refusals, record download-time basis, tighten OBR checks
  
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  committed
  3991f69
Commits on Oct 16, 2026
- Recognise secrets in any case and write-all; let the versioning job run only its lines (Sol re-review 3 of #603)
  
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  c41f10c
- Don't let a shell or environment change what the versioning job runs (Sol re-review 4 of #603)
  
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  committed
  79ffd76
- Block a step working-directory and more curl header spellings (Sol re-review 5 nits)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  e9fff87
- Fix national age-band tests for open-ended 80+ targets
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  29ca754
- Put an estimate exactly on a band edge inside it (delta review of #599)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  dc81b55
- Merge branch 'w3-fit-comparison' into w3-distribution-checks
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  07a8ea7
- Merge #599; test the fit summary's and the base's step order (delta review of #600)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  45d4742
- Merge branch 'w3-distribution-checks' into w3-aggregate-data-comparison
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  3eec058
- Merge #600; pin the tool to #2425's 5d5558ed and test the aggregate wiring (delta review of #602)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  15426b7
- Show the own-unit sub-heading test reads the heading; rewrap two docstrings
  
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  committed
  159db44
- Pin a non-verbose example of the final-weights property (delta review of #594)
  
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  committed
  cac704b
- Give the download pages in the documented ingest command
  
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  committed
  133632a
- Report duplicate target names, scope known gaps to a build kind, and test the matrix against main's
  
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  committed
  a590573
- Count any curl or wget in a data job as a route out (delta review of #603)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  committed
  7313f8b
- Rewrap the docstring line the curl change ran long (nit 1, delta review of #603)
  
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  claude
  committed
  5881ce3
- Revert "Add locked pytest-xdist development dependency"
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  ff643be
- Pin the aggregate tool to #2425's approved head 6406b2ce
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  0822699
- Test mapped Scottish constituency target rows
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  26e51a2
- Check local income and age source code ordering
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  a2eedce
- Merge origin/main and regenerate SPI projections from the 2023 outturn
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  fa4ebe9
- Refresh SPI changelog after integrating current uprating factors
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  c9229ee
- Conserve capital gains pair priors through calibration
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  0b0325c
- Cover national prior raking and clarify CGT assumptions
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  3a3ee3c
- Merge origin/main into fix/cgt-start-on-hmrc-bands
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  77b6527
- Defer CGT target year changes to the follow-up after #571
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  4840083
- Describe the SPI-only calibration fix and defer CGT follow-up
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  473adaf
- Merge origin/main into w3-target-coverage (integration with #604 and #557)
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  d5555a5
- Merge origin/fix/593-age-topcode into w3-target-coverage (integration with #604 and #557)
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  ef65f75
- Merge origin/fix/spi-cgt-tax-year-start into w3-target-coverage (integration with #604 and #557)
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  45964bc
- Drop the gaps #557 and #604 close (integration with both)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  6e03d4c
- Bring known_gaps.yaml's header counts up to the integrated inventory (review nit)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  0785612
Commits on Oct 17, 2026
Commits on Oct 19, 2026
- Allow variable high UC payment gaps in release builds
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  cb92e40
- Seed the calibration weight dropout
  
  authored and
  build
  committed
  bc46b5a
- Diagnostic only: production-setting head build (TESTING=0, 512 epochs) to verify the release coverage gate
  build
  committed
  56980d2
- Diagnostic only: merge #551 (spi-rank-preserving-draw at a0176749) onto #621's seeded production-setting release build
  MaxGhenis
  committed
  18ac057
- Diagnostic only: run just #551's built-dataset hours-and-pay test on the production build
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  4e07c0b
- Diagnostic only: #551's rank draw with tie-break seed 1 instead of 0
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  f05449c
- Diagnostic only: measure SPI-row aggregates on the build (#551)
  
  MaxGhenis
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  claude
  committed
  46468db

Commits

Commits on Oct 5, 2026

Commits on Oct 8, 2026

Commits on Oct 9, 2026

Commits on Oct 10, 2026

Commits on Oct 11, 2026

Commits on Oct 12, 2026

Commits on Oct 15, 2026

Commits on Oct 16, 2026

Commits on Oct 17, 2026

Commits on Oct 19, 2026